Gold Spot Price Today
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The price of gold rose to its highest level since February and the monthly dynamics of XAUUSD returned to positive territory. Gold is up nearly 2 percent from March 7 prices as global growth forecasts continue to be revised down. The Federal Reserve sparked the latest flare-up of market pessimism last Wednesday when the FOMC released an updated economic outlook that cut estimates for 2019 GDP growth from 2.3 percent to 2.1 percent.
While equity investors initially welcomed the Fed’s latest dovish stance and easy cash policy, risk assets have since come under pressure as markets scramble to see whether the economic slowdown is temporary or a recession is on the horizon . However, sentiment appears to be declining, judging by the surge in US Treasury bills. In fact, the 10-year US Treasury yield plunged from a high of 2.63 percent last week to 2.42 percent today, the lowest level since December 2017.
On Twitter: Gold Market Updates
What’s more, CME data shows that the futures market is currently estimating a 75 percent chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by the end of this year. The lower yield path puts pressure on real interest rates, which in turn boosts the relative attractiveness of holding gold given that the precious metal is a zero-yielding asset.
Product Chart for SPOT GOLD (XAUUSD) AND US 10-YEAR QUALITY LIABILITY: DAILY (DECEMBER 31, 2018 TO MARCH 25, 2019)
Although long-term rates have fallen significantly, an unprecedented shift in the yield curve – a “flattening” where short-term rates rise faster than long-term rates – has caused parts of the US Treasury yield curve to invert. Notably, the 3min 10sec yield curve has just inverted, which is important as this event signals a US recession over the next 24 months seven times out of the last seven.
As a result, this combination of lower long-term interest rates and a higher risk of recession has supported gold prices. Now that XAUUSD looks like it has confirmed its statement above technical support near the $1,300 price level, the recent parabolic rally could continue. However, gold bulls could quickly exit speculative positions and lower prices if global economic fundamentals begin to improve from their current expectations.
Gold Price Preview: June 24
Gold and Silver Price Prediction: Gold Pulls Back, Silver Tests Key Support on Surprise ISM Services, Bearish Technical Alert XAU/USD 2022-12-05 09:30:32 Enjoy your Monday traders. Welcome to your weekly review of the macroeconomic calendar from the perspective of the gold market. We have a relatively quiet schedule for the next five days, but there are still a few potential fires.
At the time of writing, spot gold prices are struggling to maintain temporary support at $1,400 per ounce after moderate buying in the Asian session and in the morning in Europe.
Monday looks mostly devoid of macro data or relevant headlines, so expect the yellow metal to trade today (and possibly Tuesday, depending on FedSpeak) on its own fundamentals and technical charts rather than as a reaction to external events. From this perspective, it may not be the most inspiring to watch the price of gold battle for profit margins, but from a technical perspective, the chart is still mostly bullish, so this should provide some additional support.
Along with scheduled data releases and public statements from Fed officials this week, we will monitor further developments in the trade talks that the US and China have agreed to resume.
The Way Gold Prices Are Set Is Changing Forever
Market attention to the FOMC is still as high as it has been at any other time, I think, in the last few years. This week we have a few Fed speeches before the release of committee minutes on Wednesday, followed by a few public appearances after that. Last week’s employment report added uncertainty to the market’s expectations of a rate cut in July, so analysts will be keen to analyze any messages coming from the Fed. As usual, this list of appearances is not exhaustive, but I have tried to include those that I think could make an impact.
The June FOMC meeting was very optimistic across the board, from wording in a statement that the committee “will act accordingly” to 40% of staff participating in the Economic Outlook estimating a basis point cut 50 before the end of 2019. Despite this, immediately after meetings, we saw how important figures in the FOMC are doing their best to soften the reaction and forecasts; The June labor market data, as I mentioned earlier, also made it more difficult for the market to predict the Fed’s next move.
In the minutes released on Wednesday, we will look for more details about the committee’s discussions and debates about whether and when to cut interest rates, and how the FOMC’s preferred metrics such as inflation and the labor market may affect voters before the next meeting later this month. For gold traders, at least in the short term, the math is pretty simple: if the minutes reveal a growing agreement within the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later, expect gold to rise a foot; if instead the FOMC as a whole is hesitant to change rates at all, then we could see a reversal of gold’s recent bull run.
The man himself, Ryan Page, will prepare a full report for you as soon as the records are released.
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Most analysts expect lower gas station prices to lead to a slight reduction in headline inflation; beyond that, very little is expected to change from last month, and the less volatile underlying inflation pattern is expected to remain the same. This is, of course, not very informative for us in the markets, because – assuming the CPI data looks as expected – we won’t have any significantly changed data that can be used in our forecasting efforts next step Fed.
If I try to attach any value to the value of metals and currencies to what June inflation looks like today, it will probably be out of date (or at least wrong) by Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes. Once the details of the committee’s June discussion are known, we can better interpret how intermeeting inflation data may (or may not) influence the FOMC’s view on the direction of policy.
Like its consumer price-focused cousin, the overall PPI is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month as major producer prices have been firm, but lower energy costs will carry over. And, as with the consumer price index, our views on how (and whether) the producer price index affects the prices of assets such as the US dollar or gold will not emerge effectively until FOMC meeting minutes are released on Wednesday.
So, traders, the coming week is building. I wish you the best of luck at the markets in the coming days and look forward to seeing you here on Friday to wrap up the week.
Gold Price Forecast: Bears Hold The Grip, But A Bounce Is Not Out Of Sight
John Moncrief is an active commodity and currency trader with almost a decade of experience in the industry. He also has many years of experience writing market analysis and research notes.
John’s particular interest lies in the study of precious metals and currency trends with a focus on macroeconomic factors and behavioral economics; although he probably spent as much time reading Stan Lee as Richard Thaler. Spot gold led the way in price appreciation compared to the August 2020 Comex contract, which is the most active futures contract. The spot or Forex price is currently locked at $1,738.59, $9 more than
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